The  following  interest  and  exchange  forecasts  are   produced  by  The Royal Bank of Scotland Group's Economics team. These forecasts are updated on a monthly basis and, consequently, may from time-to-time differ from those included in our regular monthly and quarterly publications. Revised interest and exchange rate forecasts are posted on this website each month, shortly after the announcement from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the Bank of England on UK interest rates. The MPC meets every month, normally on the Wednesday and Thursday following the first Monday of each month. The decisions on interest rates are announced at 12 noon on the meetings’ second day.  A schedule of dates for 2002 can be found on the Bank of England website.

The interest and exchange rate forecasts in the table (accessible via the link below) are based upon the assumption that there is no move towards a referendum on UK entry to EMU. This should not be taken to imply that we rule out the possibility of such a referendum, rather that at this stage we are keeping to the status quo. If the Government determines to move towards UK entry this Parliament, then the most likely timetable would involve a referendum in Spring 2003, with - if the referendum yielded a 'yes' vote - sterling irrevocably locked to the euro from summer that year. We have developed, and will regularly update, an alternative interest and exchange rate forecast based upon this scenario, available on request from Group Economics.

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