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Press Release
The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc Pre-close Trading
Up-date
17 December 2001
The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (RBSG)
will be responding to analysts' enquiries ahead of its close period for the year ending 31
December 2001.
RBSG has continued to achieve strong performance in each of
its businesses since 30 June 2001, with sustained growth in income and improvements in
efficiency as well as further substantial progress on the integration of NatWest. Whilst
deteriorating economic conditions and certain specific customer situations have
contributed to an increased bad debt charge, the progress of the Group as a whole is such
that we are confident that results will continue to meet expectations.
Income:
Superior income growth is a particular focus of all our
businesses and the first half growth of 14 per cent in income is expected to be exceeded
in the second half.
Growth has been evident across all areas of the business,
with particular successes in adding new small business and personal accounts, Retail
Direct, Financial Markets and Direct Line.
Expenses:
Whilst we continue to incur higher expenses as we acquire
customers and grow our businesses, overall expense growth is being contained to very low
levels as a result of integration cost savings which are running well ahead of plan.
The Group cost:income ratio has improved further in the
second half.
Provisions:
In the second half of 2001, we have seen a deterioration in
the short term economic outlook which, when combined with the impact of specific customer
situations, has given rise to a higher than expected bad debt charge.
Bad debt provisions arise from a continuous forward looking
review of advances to customers. Where individual circumstances indicate that the amount
advanced will not be recovered in full, provision is made for the assessed shortfall. The
level of balance sheet provisions remains at around 80 per cent of risk elements in
lending.
Credit quality:
Overall credit quality remains strong with no material
change to the distribution by grade of our lending portfolio as compared with the position
disclosed in the interim results presentation.
Margins:
The Group net interest margin is running ahead of the level
achieved in the first half. Early action in anticipation of possible economic slowdown has
led to improved lending margins which together with the benefit of funds raised in
relation to the acquisition of Mellon has more than off-set the downward pressure on
deposit margins arising from lower interest rates.
NatWest integration:
The integration of NatWest continues to run significantly
ahead of plan both in terms of income benefits and cost savings. The speed of the
integration is such that materially greater cumulative benefit will be achieved during the
three year integration programme than was originally envisaged.
Furthermore, as indicated at the time of the interim
results, we believe that an increase in the ultimate level of the recurring cost and
revenue benefits will be achieved. A full up-date of the revised targets will be included
in our annual results announcement together with an estimate of the increased costs
associated with achieving both greater and faster integration benefits.
Mellon:
The acquisition of the Mellon Regional Franchise in the
United States was successfully completed on 1 December 2001. The early signs are extremely
encouraging, with deposit levels higher than when the acquisition was announced in July.
We enjoyed excellent co-operation from Mellon in the lead up to completion and are
therefore in a position to confirm the integration targets that we set out at that time.
Fred Goodwin, Group Chief Executive, commented:
"All our businesses continue to build momentum, driven
by strong income growth and improving efficiency.
Credit quality remains strong, although the deterioration
of the near term economic outlook and specific customer situations have prompted us to
increase provision levels against the weaker elements of our loan book. Steps taken in
anticipation of a possible downturn have enabled us to establish the requisite provisions
whilst maintaining the strong profit growth trend evident in our recent results.
Progress on integration continues to exceed our targets,
and we look forward to publishing our increased forecast in this area.
Whilst there is inevitably a greater degree of uncertainty
about the immediate economic outlook, we are confident that our results will continue to
meet expectations and that The Royal Bank of Scotland Group enters 2002 in good
health."
The annual results for RBSG for the year to 31 December
2001 will be announced on Thursday 28 February 2002.
This announcement contains forward looking statements,
including such statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the US Securities Act of
1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These statements concern or
may affect future matters, such as RBSG's future economic results, business plans and
strategies, and are based upon the current expectations of the directors. They are subject
to a number of risks and uncertainties that might cause actual results and events to
differ materially from the expectations expressed in the forward looking statements.
Factors that could cause or contribute to differences in current expectations include, but
are not limited to, regulatory developments, competitive conditions, technological
developments and general economic conditions. RBSG assumes no responsibility to update any
of the forward looking statements contained in this announcement.
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